Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Runs Scored at Record Pace

Several Teams Post 20+ Run Outings in July

Mets 26, Cardinals 5. Claussen throws 202 pitches.

Indians 22, White Sox 3. DeJean throws 113 pitches in two innings of relief.

Giants 19, Diamondbacks 3. Weaver throws 171 pitches in eigth innings.

Marlins 24, Mariners 6. Robertson throws 244 pitches in a complete game loss.

What do these games have in common? They reflect unrealistic player use driven by, in my opinion, the existing rules governing bullpen use. Full-time starters can throw unlimited innings, yet swing men and relievers cringe with every out during the latter part of the season.

This raises a question about the intent and effects of use restrictions. Until recent years, the League restricted pitchers by starts and relief appearances, ignoring innings thrown. While this, too, inhibited managerial flexibility late in the year--Tony LaRussa would not survive these restrictions--it otherwise did a reasonable job of preventing extreme overuse since relief ratings generally would push a pitcher's endurance to his real-life performance. Under the new rules, clearly it is advantageous to leave a starter out there for two starts worth of balls thrown rather than waste your pen early in a blowout.

One other effect of the new rules is the abilty to use a major league starter as a full time middle reliever. If you are fortunate enough to have a six-deep rotation, why not use your sixth starter as a relief pitcher knowing you have 150 innings or more at your disposal?

Under either system, the rules will affect how you manage. But which is worse? Leaving a starter out forever or leaning against one-batter matchups because you don't want to waste an appearance?

The surprising Red Sox have already used up and thrown overboard two relievers this season, leaning on the waiver pool like all those players are in Pawtucket. The Athletics have overused a reliever by a third of an inning and jettisoned him. Is it realistic to pull a reliever with the bases empty with two outs in the ninth because your hurler is out of outs?

I'm inclined to support going back to tracking appearances as the less detrimental of two flawed systems to prevent abusing players. What are your thoughts, or is there a third option?